Home Market Trade setup: For a runaway rally, Nifty needs to hold 10,850 level

Trade setup: For a runaway rally, Nifty needs to hold 10,850 level


Indian market managed to post decent gains on Tuesday despite witnessing high volatility during the session. The NSE benchmark Nifty rose by 55.90 points or 0.52 per cent.

However, it was the second day in a row when the market resisted the 10,820-10,850 levels. After resisting this crucial zone for the entire session, the Nifty closed very close the 10,850-mark.

The Wednesdays session opening will be crucial. After the brief consolidation in the 10,820-10,850 zones, if Nifty wants to see any meaningful upmove, it will have to move past the 10,850-mark and stay above that.

The longer the market remains below this critical mark, higher will be the chances of it consolidating for some more time. Wednesday will see the levels of 10,850 and 10,930 acting as important resistance. Supports may come in at 10,780 and 10,735 zones.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is 62.3188 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high, which is bullish. The RSI does not show any divergence against the price, but it is seen breaking out of a pattern resistance.

The daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formations were observed on the candles. Going by the pattern analysis, Nifty still holds the falling trend line that joins 11,179-mark to its subsequent lower tops.

The Nifty will have to move past the 10850 level and remain above that to resume any meaningful upmove.

Overall, with Nifty still continuing to resist the 10,820-10,850 zones, it has shown inclination to move past this zone. F&O data suggest short covering and also fresh longs were seen being added.

Though it remains slightly overstretched on the daily charts, the Nifty has demonstrated underlying strength and shows inclination to breakout from the current resistance area.

We recommend continuing remaining highly stock-specific while making purchases and extremely vigilant at higher levels unless a meaningful breakout is achieved.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Long positions were seen added in stocks of JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, HDFC, TCS, L&T Finance Holdings, KPIT, TV18 Broadcast, Exide, TATA Elxsi, BHEL, Nalco and NCC.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at [email protected])

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