Home Market State elections will add to market volatility: How to position yourself

State elections will add to market volatility: How to position yourself


NEW DELHI: The announcement of elections in five states will only add to the ongoing volatility in the market, which is already bogged down by a free fall in the rupee, rising crude oil prices and liquidity crunch in the system.

Analysts said the market had not yet factored in state election outcomes, but believe the recent selloff has taken care of most of the concerns relating to the weak macros.

They expect the market to stay volatile with a downward bias, but rules out any sharp fall as long as the election outcome in December is not very upsetting.

“The market will remain volatile. You cant avoid it. It would surely react, but only to the final results that are scheduled for December 11,” said G Chokkalingam, founder at Equinomics Research.

Chhattisgarh will be the first state to go on polls. It will see voting in two phases – the first on November 12 and the second on November 20. Polling in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram will be held on November 28, while Rajasthan and Telangana will vote on December 7.

Counting of votes in all five states will be held on December 11, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) O P Rawat announced at the press conference on Saturday.

Chokkalingam said investors should see whether they have made mistakes in judging fundamentals of their portfolio stocks and not shy away from booking losses, where needed, at prevailing levels.

“At the same time, one must also recall the bearish phases of September 2013 and January-February 2016. Worst market conditions create wealth creation opportunities. 2018 is a year of investment and the awards could be reaped in 2019,” he said.

Sit tight on quality stocks and accumulate them in a staggered way, he said.

The outcome is still a bit away and the market has come off quite a bit, said Sunil Jain, head of research at Nirmal Bang Securities.

These elections are supposed to give direction on the 2019 general elections, but not much is expected from the forthcoming state elections, he said.

“We dont see any sign of improvement in market sentiment. One may keep an eye on crude oil price and rupee movement. If the market remains depressed, the way it is right now, weak election results may not have much of an impact on the market. Sentiment will be hurt only if the market moves up from here on because of governments measures or fall in crude prices in next two months and followed by upsetting election outcome,” he said.

Some experts, meanwhile, see goods days ahead.

“Nifty50 has plunged 15,00 points so far and all the negativity is in the price. The market should bottom out in the next two-three days. Elections will be as per course but one should not forget that recent election surveys, particularly the one by C-Voter, suggesting a BJP comeback,” said Sanjiv Bhasin of IIL.

According to ABP News-C Voter survey, BJP-led NDA will return to power if Lok Sabha elections are held today.

The survey suggests NDA may win 276 seats, followed by UPA,which may win 112 seats. Other parties, the survey projected, will win 155 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

In 2014 general elections, BJP secured majority by winning 282 seats, taking NDAs seat count to 336.

Data showed the Sensex traded at 26.40 times on January 29 against a 10-year P/E multiple of 19.40 and five-year ratio of 19.90 times. After the recent round of selloff, its valuation has eased to 21.90.

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