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The fear factor: Sectors & stocks that most upgrades & downgrades in October


By Jayesh Khilnani

The domestic equity market had its worst October since 2012, with Nifty50 declining over 5 per cent. From a global context though, the 50-pack still had a relative outperformance. Thats because other indices like the Nikkei and Kospi declined over 10 per cent each while Hang Seng and Nasdaq lost over 9 per cent during the same period.

Among the sectoral indices in India, only three managed to advance during the month. Nifty PSU Bank Index gained more than 4 per cent and recorded the best month since July. Nifty Media and Infrastructure indices were the other two gainers.

On the losers side, Nifty Energy Index declined over 11 per cent and had its worst month since October 2008, followed by Nifty Auto index, which lost over 8 per cent and continued to decline for the second straight month.

Volatility was high all through the month, with India VIX, a measure of volatility, rising nearly 18 per cent.

Analysts have turned cautious under these circumstances. A study of 439 stocks tracked by a minimum of five analysts showed only 22.8 per cent stocks saw upgrades on target prices during the month, while target price downgrades, at 65.8 percent, dominated the narrative. Only 11.4 per cent stocks out of 439 saw no change in price targets during this period.


All but one sector, healthcare, saw an overall upgrade in target price revision during October. Analysts view on the technology space remained unchanged as the rupee dropping for the ninth month in a row, making it the longest losing streak since October 2001. Among the notable downgrades, were energy and financial stocks, which saw up to 8 per cent cut in price targets.

Heres how analysts revised their sectoral expectations.


Among the 439 stocks, the stocks that saw biggest upgrades were Hathway Cable and Datacom, whose price target projections rose by 48 per cent. They were followed by Praj Industries and Vinati Organics, which saw 27 per cent and 26 per cent price upgrades, respective. Balrampur Chini came fourth, with price target going up 18 per cent, while NIIT Technologies saw its price target go up 14 per cent during the month.



Two Nifty members HPCL and BPCL featured among top five downgrades in October, as their price targets were cut by 38 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively. Dish TV was another top loser, with 40 per cent cut in target price. Genus Power Infrastructures and HT Media were the other two, with price targets cut by 37 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively.

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